Plasma’s launch was one of the most anticipated events of 2025, and on the infrastructure side, it delivered flawlessly. But the past few weeks show a chain struggling to convert perfect execution into sustained, organic demand. @Plasma flows tell the story. • TVL is down 35% from the peak. • Daily active addresses collapsed 90%. • Transactions are down 75%. Every metric tied to real users shows unwinding, not growth. Mercenary farmers left nothing. $XPL is also down 87% from its $1.68 ATH, now trading around $0.22, despite maintaining deep liquidity across major exchanges. The recent 88.9M token unlock added additional sell pressure, with larger cliffs still ahead into mid-2026. None of this is unusual; it’s a classic post-incentive unwind.

Plus, the app layer is narrow. @aave, @pendle_fi and @0xfluid account for 90% of TVL. The "ecosystem" is a single carry trade replicated across protocols. DEX volumes have vanished. RWAs are effectively zero.

The one piece that still works? → Stablecoin infrastructure. USDT flows remain consistent, market share is intact, and the operational layer hasn’t missed a beat. But without applications that generate organic activity, it’s just idle liquidity waiting for better yields. At the moment, Plasma One – a neobank offering zero-fee USDT payments, a 4% cashback debit card, and 10%+ APY on stablecoin savings – is the standout consumer product. Early traction sits in the 20k–30k monthly active user range across Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This is another proof: You can have flawless infrastructure, top-tier backers, and every CEX listing, but if you can’t convert incentives into organic demand, the market will price that failure instantly. XPL as a token needs a narrative, an application layer, and non-mercenary user retention before it becomes anything other than a short-term trading vehicle.