Crypto valuations, alt bleed, killer apps, & real on-chain users.
Crypto's dream era is over, but the era of cash flows is just starting.
🧵 Breakdown of this week’s 1000x with @santiagoroel @AviFelman @jvb_xyz
Why Everything Outside BTC Is Struggling
➤ Valuations across altcoins can’t be justified by current revenues
➤ The dream of future activity is no longer enough to support prices
➤ Even strong narratives (tokenization, banks using crypto rails) were fully priced in
Sentiment has shifted from belief to sobriety.
The Mirage of Altcoin Valuations
➤ Tokens don’t go bankrupt, which kept dead projects inflated for years
➤ But that paradigm is breaking — insiders are selling, communities are quitting
➤ EOS delisting showed even “next-gen” L1s aren’t immune from reality
The spell keeping zombie tokens alive is finally fading.
Infrastructure Is Now Commoditized
➤ New chains are easy to launch and blockspace is cheap
➤ L2s cannibalize Ethereum economics, not strengthen them
➤ Infra ≠value capture unless users + cash flows show up
Owning rails isn’t enough — you need actual traffic.
Why Real Users Matter More Than Tech
➤ Active on-chain users haven’t grown meaningfully
➤ Speculative flows dominate and evaporate during macro tightening
➤ Without sticky usage, valuations collapse on contact with reality
Usage is the KPI that decides who survives.
Killer Apps, Not Killer Chains
➤ Like the internet era, value accrues to apps, not pipes
➤ Google/Amazon were built on commoditized infrastructure
➤ The investable upside is in products with real demand, not generic L1s
The era of infra-first investing is over.
Why Some Assets May Still Work
➤ Select DeFi protocols (Uniswap, Aave, Hyperliquid) have real fees
➤ Tokens tied to recurring activity may outperform during broad drawdowns
➤ Capital will migrate from vapor to fundamentals
Survival belongs to the apps that actually make money.
Bitcoin Stands Alone
➤ BTC now trades like a macro asset, not a tech bet
➤ Institutional flows + ETFs create structural demand
➤ In a world of stimulus + affordability crises, BTC is the cleanest hedge
BTC can rally even if alts stagnate.
What Real Flow Into Crypto Looks Like
➤ Institutions won’t buy gas tokens — they'll use stablecoins + rails
➤ Banks already deploying on public chains without needing the native asset
➤ Rails adoption ≠token appreciation unless tokens capture fees
Infrastructure adoption does not guarantee token inflows.
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