📍Uptober – History and Macro Opportunities for Crypto 📌 Uptober has become a familiar concept: October is often the green month for the market. From 2013 to now, Bitcoin has closed the October monthly candle in the green 10 out of 12 times, with an average increase of ~+21.9% and a median of ~+21.2%: - 2013: +60.8% - 2017: +47.8% - 2021: +39.9% - 2023: +28.5% - There are exceptions in 2014 (-12.9%) and 2018 (-3.8%). -> October is the time frame for Bitcoin's top performers, only second to November in terms of explosiveness. 📌 This not only reflects seasonal factors but also shows that capital often returns after the September Redtember/Sậptember. The anticipation of Uptober inadvertently becomes a self-reinforcing catalyst as many traders, funds, and institutions tend to open positions in October, creating demand for the market. 🔍 Uptober 2025: Why does the market have additional momentum? - This year, Uptober not only has the "historical effect" but is also supported by many macro variables: - The Fed has gone through a tightening cycle, and interest rates are gradually decreasing, with market expectations that additional rate cuts will come in 2026. Long-term yields are cooling down, and risk assets benefit. Crypto, being sensitive to liquidity, is naturally a destination. - After the Bitcoin ETF, a series of altcoin ETF applications (LTC, SOL, XRP…) are awaiting approval in October. Large capital is waiting to flow into Altcoin ETFs. - Currently, after the strong sweep of the market in the past two weeks, the funding rate, open interest, and deposit/withdrawal data show that margin capital is returning after a bleak Q3. BTCD has bounced back but not too dramatically, opening up the possibility of a wave spreading to altcoins if BTC stabilizes above the support zone. - The DXY is at a historical support zone, and if the USD breaks down, it is natural for asset prices to lose their peak.