Aster price

The $HYPE -to-> $GLXY rotation at these levels is an amazing deal that I've taken for myself. I sold the last of my remaining $HYPE at ~$54 last night so I could buy more $GLXY, here are the clear 2 reasons I believe $GLXY is a better investment: 1) Quality of Revenues Hyperliquid has a beautiful business model with awesome value accrual, >99% of trading fees going straight to $HYPE buybacks. The problem here is these revenues are in no way guaranteed to occur in the future (so how do you put an appropriate multiple on this revenue)? Perp traders are mercenary and also blow up all the time so you constantly need to be increasing your user count. Traders can leave in favor of new competitors (see $ASTER) as there is very little “lock in” for perps traders. If a competing product can offer similar liquidity, features, and breadth of coins to trade + incentives its pretty enticing for traders to go try out the new platform/shift their volume. Especially seeing how much money people made off the Hype airdrop. I would assume if you have a few hundred million dollars, a very strong team and a handful of market makers then you can build something that is comparable to Hyperliquid for most traders (as in 95% of users wouldn’t be able to tell the difference between using this new product and Hyperliquid). When you get to the expert traders or mega whales Hyperliquid would likely be preferred due to the organic liquidity and perfected product but if the competition throws some token incentives then that could be enough to meaningfully pull away the majority of users. So basically a competent team with a few hundred million can come and try for a slice of Hyperliquid's >$50B. These dynamics get even worse as Hyperliquid price goes up because it becomes more and more worth it to compete. Exactly what is happening right now with @cz_binance backing @Aster_DEX... Now lets compare that to Galaxy's revenues. On the crypto side of their business they have >$9B in AUM which is typically very sticky revenue, small % fee for providing a crucial service (custody and staking of crypto) customers are happy to pay for (pain in the ass to switch providers, hugely based on relationships/customer services, big regulatory/compliance moat). They've struck a ton of DAT deals locking in multi-year custody/staking contracts for 0.5-1% in fees. These revenues are high quality and extremely scalable. On the data center side of their business they are locking in 15 year leases with guaranteed contractual revenue at 90% EBITDA margins! The first 800MW they have leased out to $CRWV will provide Galaxy an average of $1.2B/year in revenues for 15 years and if they get the full potential capacity of Helios leased out on those same terms $GLXY's 3.5GW could make them $5.4B/year in average annual revenues at 90% EBITDA margins. That equals = $4.86B in EBITDA * 25x multiple = $121B Enterprise Value - $26B in debt = $95B in equity value / 400M shares = $237.5/share vs $33/share today. For this to happen they need ERCOT approvals on the 2.7GW understudy, management has guided to this happening in tranches starting a soon as EOY. This also doesn’t include expansion just executing on current power contracts. Meanwhile if $HYPE loses a ton of its traders to competition like $ASTER there are no-multi year contractual revenues... $GLXY's revenues are also mega diversified, if any part of crypto is successful Galaxy will be there, if AI continues to be in demand Galaxy will benefit massively. To me the quality and diversification that $GLXY's revenues have over $HYPE's was enough to make the rotation the clear move, the nail in the coffin was the sheer size of $HYPE's FDV already and flows. 2) Flows & Absolute Market Cap Size At a >$50B FDV for $HYPE to 10x from here its going to take an insane amount of flows no matter how good the business is in the short term, $500B is simply huge for crypto (~ $ETH market cap). $HYPE is also less than 1 year old so there is still SO MUCH uPNL from $HYPE airdroppers/early buyers/team that has not been churned through vs an asset like $ETH that has had multiple cycles & 90% drawdowns to churn and distribute the holder base. Crypto rails are just not set up to support a >$500B valuation, no $HYPE ETF, literally all the liquid funds in crypto have bought, where is the marginal bidder in the next couple of years? DATs are potentially a solution to this, maybe I’ll buy some calls on the leading Hyperliquid DAT. VS $GLXY at a $12B market cap listed on the NASDAQ, getting added to more ETFs and increasing its awareness amongst retail and institutional investors it has the ability to tap into the largest capital market in the world. Let me tell you its a hell of a lot easier for a stock to go from $12B --> $120B then a crypto coin with no ETF to go from $50B --> $500B. All in all I think $HYPE can still do well long term, I just don't know how you can't be enticed to sell and buy $GLXY over $HYPE. Galaxy's revenues are high quality and more diversified (crypto + AI), it has >600 employees and is listed on the NASDAQ for me it just feels more comfortable to hold and from a flows perspective it has the ability to run way harder.