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$ETH: If it can't break above 2300, it's worthless. If it breaks 2251, don't try to catch the falling knife. Brothers, ETH is currently oscillating within a range on the hourly chart. The lower level of 2251 has been tested twice without breaking, and it has even formed a reversal signal. You might think it looks like it's about to bounce, right? But with the barrier of 2300 in the way, if it can't get above that, don't expect it to bounce too high. It's like wanting to fly, but there's a steel plate pressing down on you; can you really take off? So remember: 2300 is the pass line for the bulls. Only if it gets above that can we look towards 2330 and 2360. If it can't get above, it will just grind here. No matter how anxious you are, the market makers can grind longer than you. · If it breaks above 2296 with volume, go long on the right side, targeting 2330 and 2360, and set your stop loss properly; don't hold on. · If it breaks below 2277 with volume, go short on the right side, first looking at around 2251 below; if it can't hold, then look at 2249. · If 2251 is effectively broken, don't try to catch the falling knife; wait to see if it can hold below before I tell you where to look next. Right now, don't guess; guessing is just giving money to the market makers. Some brothers with empty positions see it consolidating and want to short. I tell you, this habit needs to change. Jumping into a directionless oscillation zone to short can easily lead you to short at the floor. Remember: when there's no direction, don't force a direction; wait for a signal to act. Let’s take another look at the four-hour structure: As long as it doesn't break the key support line below, there shouldn't be any major issues. The bulls still have a chance; after the oscillation, it might still push up. If it breaks, don't look for opportunities in the middle of that downward continuation area; it's easy to get caught halfway up. Key point: Place buy orders around 2174 and wait. When it drops to this level and shows a clear stop-loss signal, then try going long; don't get in without a signal. If it breaks below 2174, then sorry, the bullish structure on the four-hour chart is over, and the price will drop back into that oscillation zone to continue grinding, which is the scenario I least want to see. --- If it can't break above 2300, the bulls have no chance; if it can't hold 2251, the bears will accelerate. If neither of these levels is touched, the market is just grinding—focus on watching the show and don't add drama to yourself. $ETH

$BTC Evening Outlook: The cost-effectiveness of shorting is extremely low. This market is not one where you can feel comfortable. Look at how it has been dragging down for so many days; what has it turned into? It has formed a descending channel, but each step is like a stair going down, not that waterfall feeling. This kind of decline is hard for bears to watch because there hasn't been a single sharp drop; it's all dull knives cutting flesh. The final stage of this drop is basically coming to an end. Indicators are not magic; they might give you one last jab down to mess with your mindset. But to be honest, at this position, if you go short, you're just betting it will break 76000. If it doesn't, a little bounce could trap you. Is the cost-effectiveness high? No, it's not. This is the first point I want to make: shorting now means little meat and many thorns. Now let's look at the position of 76224. It has already been tested twice, right? When it drops, someone picks it up, and it grinds back up. This indicates that there are indeed buy orders supporting the market; it's not a support that breaks easily. The way it's moving now, I define it as "a small double bottom is trying hard, but it hasn't formed yet." Why hasn't it formed? Because it just can't get past 77278. That's the neck; if you can't even lift your neck, saying it has bottomed out is self-deception. So don't rush in; patiently watch how it handles 77278. One possibility is that it comes back again, even two or three times, to test 76224 without breaking it. That’s called multiple probing of the bottom; support being touched repeatedly without breaking shows that the bears are really losing strength, and the selling pressure from the market can't push it down anymore. Unless something unexpected happens outside that brings bad news, this floor will be solid. At that point, you can buy on the left side, placing your stop loss just below the tip of the needle, which has a high risk-reward ratio. The other possibility is that it doesn't test the bottom anymore and directly pushes up with a bullish candle, taking out 77026 and then testing 77278 again. If it can hold above 77278, then this bottom structure is confirmed, and you can chase on the right side, looking at 78434, the previous high, with your stop loss below the neck line. But what if 76224 is eaten up with volume? Then there's nothing to say; on the hourly level, it will start to expand downwards, directly looking at 74919. When it gets there, observe what behavior occurs: whether it continues to crash or if it fakes a breakdown and then recovers. What to do in the meantime? Just like now, oscillating between 76224 and 77278. At this time, don't make any moves; turn off the screen and wait for the US stock market to open. Trading back and forth in a choppy range is just working for the exchange, going back and forth with stop losses, which can break your mindset. We just wait for it to choose a side, and then we can kick or pull it. On a larger time frame, let me say one more thing: don't scare yourself. The bullish trend on the 4-hour chart has weakened, the trend line has broken, but as long as the mid-axis of that box at 76502 is still there, it hasn't died. When can you talk to me about a major reversal? Wait until it drops back into the 72963-70406 box again. Before that, it's just a high-level consolidation; you can trade it if you can, or just watch. So tonight, keep a close eye on these numbers: 76224 is the lifeline, and 77026-77278 is the autopsy report of the rebound. Keep your stop losses in check and don't get too excited. $BTC

Negotiations in New York reveal cards, Bitcoin falls below $77,000: When the "macro super week" collides with rising geopolitical tensions In the past 24 hours, the confrontation between the U.S. and Iran at the United Nations headquarters in New York has intensified—both ambassadors engaged in heated arguments, refusing to back down, and the diplomatic deadlock shows no signs of easing. Risk assets were the first to be impacted: Bitcoin fell below $77,000, with over 100,000 liquidations across the network; crude oil surged due to supply fears, with Brent crude prices breaking $104, marking a seven-day consecutive rise; gold slightly declined. #U.S.-Iran Negotiation Deadlock: Three-Phase Plan Rejected by Trump Bitcoin has fallen below the $77,000 mark, with over 100,000 positions liquidated. The crypto market is experiencing a widespread correction. By noon, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $76,800, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.5%–3%; Ethereum slid to around $2,300, down over 3.7%; mainstream assets like XRP and Solana also dropped nearly 3%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies worldwide has decreased to about $2.56 trillion–$2.57 trillion. Oil prices have risen for seven consecutive days, breaking $104, while gold is under pressure and declining. The U.S.-Iran deadlock and the risk of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continue to push oil prices higher. WTI crude rose over 2%, priced at $98.52 per barrel; Brent crude increased over 2%, priced at $104.07 per barrel, having briefly surged to $111.32 per barrel due to rumors of a new proposal from Iran, before retreating. Geopolitical premiums support the oil market, while gold is pressured down by a stronger dollar and other factors. However, long-term capital has not retreated. Strategy has once again increased its holdings by 3,273 Bitcoins (approximately $255 million), with total holdings surpassing 818,000; institutions like BlackRock have accumulated about $2.44 billion in net inflows for spot ETFs this month. #Strategy Discloses April BTC Yield of 6.2% For ordinary participants, betting on whether tonight's negotiations will "collapse" or "succeed" is almost like wagering on random fluctuations. Such violent swings driven by geopolitical news often specifically target short-term traders who chase highs and lows. Instead of speculating on the next statement from each party, it’s better to take a longer view— as long as spot ETFs maintain net inflows and whale addresses continue to accumulate, the underlying support in the market will not dissipate. This week officially enters the macro super week— the Federal Reserve will hold its FOMC meeting in the next two days, coupled with the concentrated disclosure of large tech companies' earnings reports, which may be the real external force to break the current deadlock. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Oh my gosh! This is outrageous! Iran is facing a tricky situation. On April 28, Middle Eastern media reported that the oil storage facilities on Khark Island are completely saturated. If this batch of crude oil cannot be transported out of the Strait of Hormuz within the next 48 hours, Iran may be forced to shut down some oil fields. Such shutdowns would cause irreversible damage, especially if the Asmari and Bangestan oil fields cease production, Iran's annual oil output is estimated to shrink by 4% to 12%. This also means that Trump's warning that "Iran's oil pipeline will explode within three days" is not just a threat, but is gradually becoming a reality. From the actual data, since the U.S. implemented a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military has intercepted and forced 38 Iranian oil tankers to turn back, even demanding that these tankers return the crude oil they are carrying to the storage facilities on Khark Island. Roughly calculated, the value of this oil that has been forced back is about $1.05 billion, which, at the current price of $107 per barrel, corresponds to approximately 13 to 14 million barrels of crude oil. The maximum capacity of the Khark Island storage facilities is only 13 million barrels, so it can be said that the crude oil brought back by these tankers sent back by the U.S. military is almost overwhelming the island's oil storage. According to sources, to alleviate storage pressure, Iran has dispatched a supertanker "Nasha" near the Khark oil depot, attempting to use it as temporary storage space. However, this method can only buy a maximum of 48 hours of breathing room. Once Iran is forced to shut down some oil fields, the reservoir pressure will drop, allowing water or gas from the cracks to seep in, thereby exacerbating the damage to the production layer, ultimately leading to a disruption in oil extraction. It is expected that in the short term, Iran's daily output may plummet by as much as 500,000 barrels. From this background, it is not difficult to see why Iran has first demanded an end to the war and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz in the conditions it presented to the U.S., as the blockade has indeed put immense pressure on it. Although Iran has consistently claimed that its "shadow fleet" is continuously alleviating the oil transportation difficulties, according to shipping data, no more than 5 ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day, the vast majority of which are still from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while tankers departing from Iran are basically intercepted. Therefore, the oil transportation messages previously conveyed by Iran are likely intended to create a smokescreen to enhance its bargaining chips in negotiations, while the real situation is that Iran's oil exports have fallen into serious difficulties. $BZ $BTC $ETH

The current severe fluctuations in the crude oil market are essentially not driven by emotions, but rather a physical supply disruption. The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from an average of about 140 vessels per day to single digits, and U.S. military interception of Iranian tankers has trapped tens of millions of barrels of crude oil at sea each day. Citibank's baseline scenario predicts crude oil prices could reach $110 per barrel in the second quarter, while if the blockade continues until the end of June, its extreme scenario points to $150. The true long-term signal of this round of shocks lies not in the oil price itself, but in its accelerating effect on energy transition. Historically, oil crises have forced the global automotive industry to shift towards fuel-saving technologies, ultimately propelling Japanese automakers like Toyota to the throne. Currently, persistently high oil prices are systematically reinforcing the economic logic of electrification alternatives—data shows that funds in lithium carbonate futures have exceeded 40 billion yuan, CATL's sales of energy storage batteries in the first quarter surged by 60% year-on-year, energy storage business doubled, and exports of new energy vehicles increased by 1.2 times year-on-year. This is not just conceptual speculation, but a realization and confirmation at the performance level. This could be seen as a structural turning point: $100 is no longer just a price, but a critical coordinate for the accelerated contraction of the old energy era and the reinforcement of the new energy replacement logic. Of course, the only external variable that could overturn this narrative is a dramatic easing of the U.S.-Iran situation—this possibility does not seem optimistic at the moment, but should be monitored closely. $BZ $CL

The U.S. "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is entering a decisive turning point— the White House is about to release key signals, with both legislative advancement and policy implementation entering a countdown. At the Bitcoin 2026 conference held in Las Vegas, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President's Digital Asset Advisory Committee, released clear policy direction: regarding the next steps for the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve," the White House is expected to issue a "major statement" in the coming weeks. The core movements focus on the following three points: · Upgrading from executive order to national law: Although former President Trump laid the groundwork for the Bitcoin reserve through an executive order, Congress is currently advancing the process to solidify it in legal form to ensure long-term continuity and enforceability of the policy. · Fully breaking through the "legalization" mechanism: Witt revealed that the White House and the team are concentrating on tackling legal explanations and specific implementation systems. The fundamental goal is not only to "store Bitcoin in the treasury" but also to use a robust legal framework to protect these types of digital assets on the government's balance sheet, thereby truly establishing their legal status as a national strategic reserve. · Expectations for reserve expansion are heating up: With the acceleration of the legislative pace, the market generally anticipates that this strategy will not remain at the initial stage of "only holding confiscated assets" but will move towards a more proactive, large-scale, and systematic new model of reserves. In-depth market observation: Witt's statement effectively dispelled previous market concerns about whether the "reserve plan" would devolve into a political slogan. He repeatedly emphasized that "safely implementing the plan" is the current overwhelming task, marking a key leap for the U.S. in the digital asset field from "initial exploration" to "institutional construction." For investors, the signals conveyed by the strategic Bitcoin reserve not only mean that the U.S. government will end the past practice of arbitrarily selling confiscated assets but also symbolize that Bitcoin has gained an official endorsement as a "highest pass" in the competition among global sovereign assets. In the coming weeks, with the release of this key announcement, the market's anticipation of the U.S. government's transparency in holdings and subsequent proactive accumulation strategies is likely to become a fundamental support sector driving the market towards long-term improvement. The next few weeks will be both a window of opportunity for the formal release of policies and a turning point for the redefinition of order in the global crypto market. This deserves the highest level of attention, as it is highly likely to become the most significant policy dividend in the entire crypto space this year. #白宫预告战略BTC储备重大公告 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Kelp DAO has really messed up big time; hackers directly minted over 110,000 worthless tokens, rsETH, and then borrowed nearly $200 million from Aave to make a run for it. This operation truly exemplifies the "empty-handed wolf" strategy. Then Aave reacted pretty quickly, pulling together a group overnight, bringing in big players like Consensys, Lido, and EtherFi, and raised $300 million to back them up—dubbed "wartime mobilization." To be honest, seasoned investors are feeling the tension with this script. Isn't this just a classic "too big to fail" narrative? To put it bluntly, these people know the score: today Kelp falls, tomorrow Lido and EtherFi will follow suit, and the day after that the entire Restaking sector will be completely wiped out. At that point, no one will escape; everyone will go down together. So this $300 million, rather than being a lifeline for Kelp, is more about saving themselves. But if you ask me whether this $300 million is a lifeline? Let me tell you, there’s a lot of fluff in this. If you look closely at that promise list, how much of that $300 million is actually going to be transferred immediately? Most of it is going through DAO voting, processes, and approvals; by the time the money actually arrives, it’ll be too late. This is a classic case of loud promises but slow action. That said, this wave of calls is useful in itself. Consensys and Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin personally stepping in is like putting a safety helmet on the Ethereum ecosystem—telling everyone not to panic, that we’re here, and the ecosystem won’t collapse. What do you call this? This is called a safety premium. Just a call can stabilize market sentiment, making this a guaranteed profit. As for whether they can really fill the hole later? Just watch the show. #KelpDAO救援收官：谁为漏洞买单 If they fill it, these people will be the saviors. If not, it’s just a good show, and in the end, the collapse will still happen. Anyway, this round of reshuffling in the Restaking sector is pretty intense; squeezing out the fluff, only the tough ones will survive. Lastly, a heart-wrenching statement: this kind of big players banding together is something seasoned investors have seen too often. Back when UST de-pegged, Jump Trading also poured in hundreds of millions to stabilize it, and what happened? It just delayed the collapse by a few days. So brothers, enjoy the show, but don’t really stake your life savings on the phrase "too big to fail." In the crypto world, no one is truly too big to fail. $BTC $ETH $SOL

According to the latest market news, after the U.S. Department of Justice concluded its investigation into Powell, Republican Senator Tillis has ceased to obstruct the confirmation process of Fed Chair nominee Waller. The Senate Banking Committee will hold a procedural vote on Waller's nomination at 10 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. If it passes, it will clear the way for a full Senate confirmation vote during the week of May 11. Just a few hours after the vote on Wednesday evening, the Fed will announce its April interest rate decision, and this press conference is highly likely to be Powell's last as chair. If Waller is successfully appointed as a Fed governor, the interim governor Milan will step down, which also means that Milan, who has consistently supported rate cuts, will attend his last FOMC meeting. #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 Powell's term as Fed Chair will end on May 15, but his governorship could last until January 31, 2028. There is significant interest in whether he will also relinquish his governor position. If Powell chooses to leave the board, Trump could appoint another loyalist, resulting in four out of seven seats on the Fed's board coming from his party, thus having enough votes to support more aggressive actions and potentially dismantle the traditional structure of the Fed. In summary, Powell's personal decision and the progress of Waller's nomination will not only directly determine the pace and intensity with which Waller or Trump can reshape the Fed, but will also have a significant impact on the Fed's future interest rate decisions and the global financial market landscape. $BTC $ETH $SOL

4.28 During the midday session, both Bitcoin and Ethereum broke down, and the long-short kill script has been written! The market is moving very chaotically, a typical scenario of killing both the bulls and the bears. That morning's rebound looked quite promising, but it was actually a trap—Bitcoin touched around 78437, and Ethereum followed suit, but if you look at the volume, there was no follow-up buying, it was purely a poke to trigger stop losses before dropping back down. First, let's talk about Bitcoin. The price channel broke down yesterday, and it's still hovering below this noon. The 77370 level, which was previously support, has now turned into resistance, which is quite annoying. That rebound action was just to confirm this resistance; it hit it and got pushed back, confirming its validity. It's simple: if 77370 can't be reclaimed, don't expect to see bullish sentiment in this market; any rebound is just a trick, so don't catch falling knives. Below, 76400 is a small support level, and it will likely oscillate between this and 77370 for a while before choosing a direction. If 76400 holds, it will try to touch 77370 again. But be careful, if it touches again and still can't break through, then 76400 will likely not hold, and it will directly test 74913. The 74913 level is quite critical; whether it can hold is uncertain, but this is the last decent defense line for the bulls. In terms of operations, don't go left-side trading, really don't go left-side trading. Only consider going long when the hourly line firmly stands above 77379, aiming for around 78446. If 76572 breaks down with volume and the rebound fails to go up, then you can chase the short position, just set your stop loss properly. At other times, just watch; in this kind of market, not losing money is already a gain. Ethereum is weaker. Ethereum's consolidation box had a false breakdown before, tricking quite a few people into entering, and now it's rolling down to test the lower edge of the box again. The probability of breaking on this second test is much higher than the first. For the bulls to turn things around, 2312 must be reclaimed; if it can't, there's nothing more to say. If the lower edge of the box really breaks this time, the first target is 2253, and if that can't hold, then 2193 is next. Those placing orders can set a long at 2178, but the stop loss must be at 2142; if it breaks, just run, don't hold on stubbornly, as Ethereum can be much harsher than Bitcoin when it starts to rise. Chase long positions when 2306 breaks with volume, and look for short positions at 2280 with volume breaking down. Don't mess around with the oscillations in between; the transaction fees won't even cover your losses. Lastly, just a reminder: Today's market is all about waiting. Waiting for signals, waiting for volume, waiting for confirmation. Don't rush in just because it rises a bit or try to catch it when it drops; this kind of market is the easiest to get chopped up. Set alarms for key levels, and only act when they are reached; if not, just sip tea and watch the show. Don't get too excited, manage your positions well; surviving in this chaotic market is better than anything else. $BTC $ETH #创作者激励

Tomorrow morning, Powell will hold the last Federal Reserve meeting, the final showdown, and we must keep a close watch! This is not a small piece of news; it directly concerns the chips we hold, so don't oversleep! #鲍威尔4·29议息：任期收官之战 Let me put it this way: the matter of keeping interest rates unchanged is no longer in doubt; the market has already digested this in advance, and it's completely meaningless to dwell on it. What really matters is what he says in this final press conference! Will he soften and give a smooth path for his successor, Waller, or will he hold firm and end on a hawkish note? Personally, I think he is very likely not to back down; after all, it's the last leg, and he must maintain a strong anti-inflation persona. He will probably still talk about inflation and oil prices to dampen rate cut expectations, so let's not hold overly optimistic hopes. Now, let's talk about Waller, who will take office next; this is the key point we should focus on in the crypto space! He has clearly stated that digital assets are part of the financial system, and that carries a lot of weight! Previously, the Federal Reserve either ignored or suppressed our circle, but now it’s equivalent to directly legitimizing the crypto space. This is not just a short-term benefit; it's a long-term reassurance, and institutional entry will only become more decisive. This transition is truly a great thing for us. Finally, let's discuss the BTC trend that everyone is most concerned about: If Powell really issues hawkish remarks, can the support level at 79,000 hold? The market is already sensitive, and this level is a short-term lifeline. If hawkish signals hit, it’s very likely we will test it. Once it breaks, short-term selling pressure will definitely come, and we will have to look at the 75,000-76,000 range. But don’t panic; even if it drops, it’s just a short-term fluctuation. The long-term logic brought by Waller hasn’t changed, and a pullback is actually an opportunity to pick up chips, so don’t lose your cool at the first sign of a drop. Here’s a piece of advice for everyone: don’t blindly go heavy on direction tomorrow morning; risk management is more important than anything else! If 79,000 holds, then hold steady; if it breaks, reduce your position to avoid risk. If unexpectedly dovish, BTC could easily surge to 82,000. This meeting is not just a policy meeting; it’s a turning point for the crypto space. Let’s wait for the results together and avoid pitfalls! $BTC $ETH $SOL